Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UTSA

7–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+1.7
Rank
60
Résumé
15
Projected wins
9.7▲ 3.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
19%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5UT Rio Grande ValleyUT Rio Grande ValleyUTSA −31.0UTSA −28.5W 45–1669
Sat, Sep 129/12at Texas StateTXSTUTSA −1.6UTSA −1.0W 31–2650TXST · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at TexasTEXUTSA +30.5UTSA +30.0L 6–3038TEX · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Colorado StateCSUUTSA −14.6UTSA −13.0W 59–4552UTSA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at RiceRICEUTSA −6.7UTSA −11.5W 16–1448RICE · W
Thu, Oct 810/8South FloridaUSFUTSA −5.0UTSA −7.0W 31–2448USF · Push
Sat, Oct 1710/17NavyNAVYUTSA −7.1UTSA −6.5W 38–3444UTSA · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TulaneTULNUTSA −3.6UTSA −1.5W 42–1966UTSA · W
Thu, Nov 511/5at Florida AtlanticFAUUTSA −8.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at UABUABUTSA −10.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28TulsaTLSAUTSA −8.3—wk 13

Model on UTSA games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.77–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins59%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game64%
Win conference32%
Make the CFP19%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1639th
Success rate47.0%34th
Pass EPA+0.1452nd
Rush EPA+0.1722nd
Explosive rate12.4%76th
Quality-drive rate49.4%80th
Points per quality drive4.348th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13111th
Success allowed41.5%72nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.14101st
Rush EPA allowed+0.13112th
Explosive allowed8.4%7th
Havoc rate9.6%135th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.123rd
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+4.3 yd24th
Hidden points / game+0.5banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record4–0flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+0.2%47th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.760th
Schedule played−2.590th
Schedule remaining−4.991st
Full schedule−3.487th
Pregame expected wins4.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 60th · +1.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUTSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UTSAoff +0.16 39thdef +0.13 allowed · 111th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.