Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UTSA
7–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+1.7
Rank
60
Résumé
15
Projected wins
9.7▲ 3.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
19%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UTSA games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.77–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins59%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game64%
Win conference32%
Make the CFP19%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Texas State over Boise State — swings a CFP bid between 14% and 28%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1639th
Success rate47.0%34th
Pass EPA+0.1452nd
Rush EPA+0.1722nd
Explosive rate12.4%76th
Quality-drive rate49.4%80th
Points per quality drive4.348th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13111th
Success allowed41.5%72nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.14101st
Rush EPA allowed+0.13112th
Explosive allowed8.4%7th
Havoc rate9.6%135th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.123rd
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+4.3 yd24th
Hidden points / game+0.5banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record4–0flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+0.2%47th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.760th
Schedule played−2.590th
Schedule remaining−4.991st
Full schedule−3.487th
Pregame expected wins4.2of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 60th · +1.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UTSAoff +0.16 39thdef +0.13 allowed · 111th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UTSAoff +0.16 39thdef +0.13 allowed · 111th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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