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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

South Alabama

4–3 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−6.8
Rank
100
Résumé
69
Projected wins
6.4▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5SE LouisianaSE LouisianaUSA −26.8USA −13.5W 39–1443
Sat, Sep 129/12at TulaneTULNUSA +12.9USA +10.5L 24–2842TULN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19OhioOHIOUSA −8.6USA −6.0W 41–3643USA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at KentuckyUKUSA +14.1USA +20.5L 21–4524USA · L
Sat, Oct 310/3UL MonroeULMUSA −18.9USA −14.0W 52–3545USA · W
Thu, Oct 810/8at Arkansas StateARSTUSA +2.4USA +1.5W 56–4949ARST · L
Tue, Oct 2010/20at MarshallMRSHUSA −2.6USA −2.5L 13–2039USA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Louisiana TechLTUSA +3.6USA +6.0USA +6.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at LouisianaULUSA +6.7—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TroyTROYUSA −6.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Southern MissUSMUSA PK—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27App StateAPPUSA PK—wk 13

Model on USA games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–4 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–3, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.44–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.4
Bowl (6+)47%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game12%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1348th
Success rate42.9%69th
Pass EPA+0.2525th
Rush EPA+0.0680th
Explosive rate12.0%81st
Quality-drive rate56.4%37th
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.32137th
Success allowed50.6%136th
Pass EPA allowed+0.28128th
Rush EPA allowed+0.37138th
Explosive allowed15.3%128th
Havoc rate14.0%69th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.620th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+2.7 yd40th
Hidden points / game+4.1banked
Luck, wins+1.32.7 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected+9.0%9th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.8100th
Schedule played−4.9107th
Schedule remaining−5.092nd
Full schedule−4.999th
Pregame expected wins3.7of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 100th · −6.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
South Alabamaoff +0.13 48thdef +0.32 allowed · 137th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.