Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #69 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–31FinalWe had TULN 17 – KSU 34
Kansas State
4–4 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KSU 85%KSU won
KSU 85%KSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −19.5.KSU −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.3 · TULN covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.49.5final 51 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TULN +19.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
TULN +19.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Kadin Semonza13/26 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Avery Johnson21/28 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5386th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulaneoffense | Played like KSU +14.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | 34.5%▼1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.5%▲4.0 | 76th |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.05 | 61st |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.27 | 70th |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.17 | 36th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
| Kansas Stateoffense | defenseTulane | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.7%▲4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.7%▼4.4 | 29th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.14 | 27th |
| 87th | +0.53▲0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.57 | 13th |
| 41st | −0.02▼0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.16 | 59th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulaneTULN | Kansas StateKSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 215th | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +3.4 pts99th | +0.2 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.918th | +11.982nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TULN +0.5: field position −3.0, kicking +2.3, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +1.5. | +0.552nd | −0.548th |
Season so far
Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5Lat Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Kansas State4–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5Wvs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5W
vs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3L
at Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1L
at Colorado24–27push +3
at Colorado24–27push +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is