Tulsa

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at TULN · Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

4–4 FBS · American Athletic · this season

Rating

−3.9

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

6.4▲ 2.5 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5

Oklahoma StateOKSTTLSA −3.6TLSA +14.0W 24–1071TLSA · W

Sat, Sep 129/12

at Sam HoustonSHSUTLSA −2.0TLSA −14.0W 23–1749SHSU · W

Sat, Sep 199/19East Texas A&MEast Texas A&MTLSA −32.9TLSA −41.0W 42–087

Sat, Sep 269/26

at ArkansasARKTLSA +13.3TLSA +9.5L 6–3447ARK · W

Thu, Oct 110/1

North TexasUNTTLSA +6.8TLSA −1.0L 44–4544UNT · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

at NavyNAVYTLSA +1.7TLSA +2.5L 26–3436TLSA · L

Sat, Oct 1710/17

at RiceRICETLSA −1.8TLSA −4.5W 38–1771RICE · L

Fri, Oct 2310/23

ArmyARMYTLSA +3.0TLSA −1.5L 35–3864ARMY · W

Sat, Nov 711/7

at TulaneTULNTLSA −3.6—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

Florida AtlanticFAUTLSA −7.1—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

CharlotteCLTTLSA −20.7—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

at UTSAUTSATLSA +8.3—wk 13

Model on TLSA games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 4–2 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +6.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

6.44–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.9

Bowl (6+)49%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game<1%

Win conference<1%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.1638th

Success rate39.8%106th

Pass EPA+0.1062nd

Rush EPA+0.2210th

Explosive rate11.1%104th

Quality-drive rate45.6%102nd

Points per quality drive4.627th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.0470th

Success allowed40.3%56th

Pass EPA allowed+0.0469th

Rush EPA allowed+0.0577th

Explosive allowed10.9%47th

Havoc rate10.4%131st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−0.292nd

Turnover margin+714th · exp. +6.5

Field position margin+2.1 yd46th

Hidden points / game+2.4banked

Luck, wins−1.25.2 earned

One-score record1–3flipped 6–2

Rush rate over expected−2.6%82nd

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−3.989th

Schedule played−3.696th

Schedule remaining−7.4110th

Full schedule−5.0103rd

Pregame expected wins3.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 89th · −3.9Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Tulsaoff +0.16 38thdef +0.04 allowed · 70th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.