Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
South Alabama
4–4 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–28FinalWe had USA 22 – TULN 35
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TULN 78%TULN won
TULN 78%TULN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TULN −11.TULN −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.9 · USA covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.2.48final 52 · over by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TULN −10.5Llost 1.0 to the close
TULN −10.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Bishop Davenport22/32 · 296 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3374th pct
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Kadin Semonza14/22 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5487th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Alabamaoffense | Played like TULN +4.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulane | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.2%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.2%▼3.9 | 31st |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.10 | 32nd |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.35 | 24th |
| 51st | +0.05▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.08 | 49th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
| Tulaneoffense | defenseSouth Alabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲14.2 | 67th |
| 84th | +0.33▲0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33 | 16th |
| 83rd | +0.45▲0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.17 | 17th |
| 76th | +0.22▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▲0.15 | 24th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South AlabamaUSA | TulaneTULN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 228th | Own 2843rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts13th | −2.0 pts10th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.257th | −2.243rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts30th | −0.2 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TULN +1.1: field position +1.9, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.145th | +1.155th |
Season so far
South Alabama4–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
Lat Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3L
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5L
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameWvs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is