Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Texas
6–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+2.3
Rank
56
Résumé
24
Projected wins
8.9▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UNT games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +5.1 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.96–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins25%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game70%
Win conference36%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Texas State over Boise State — swings a CFP bid between 2% and 7%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.331st
Success rate50.7%5th
Pass EPA+0.501st
Rush EPA+0.1340th
Explosive rate17.1%5th
Quality-drive rate62.2%9th
Points per quality drive4.726th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.16120th
Success allowed45.5%119th
Pass EPA allowed+0.31133rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0266th
Explosive allowed14.2%118th
Havoc rate12.2%109th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.1118th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin−2.0 yd101st
Hidden points / game−1.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−5.1%110th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.356th
Schedule played−2.588th
Schedule remaining−6.4105th
Full schedule−3.990th
Pregame expected wins4.1of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 56th · +2.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
North Texasoff +0.33 1stdef +0.16 allowed · 120th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
North Texasoff +0.33 1stdef +0.16 allowed · 120th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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