Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Texas

6–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+2.3
Rank
56
Résumé
24
Projected wins
8.9▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at IndianaIUUNT +25.4UNT +40.5L 16–5241UNT · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UNLVUNLVUNT −1.8UNT +5.0W 44–672UNT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Texas StateTXSTUNT −4.7UNT +3.0L 35–4948UNT · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Houston ChristianHouston ChristianUNT −40.4UNT −38.5W 63–1483
Thu, Oct 110/1at TulsaTLSAUNT −6.8UNT +1.0W 45–4456UNT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10CharlotteCLTUNT −31.0UNT −27.5W 50–1077UNT · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NavyNAVYUNT −4.5UNT −2.0W 49–3949UNT · W
Thu, Oct 2910/29Florida AtlanticFAUUNT −14.6UNT −13.5W 48–4160UNT · L
Sat, Nov 711/7RiceRICEUNT −14.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UTSAUTSAUNT +1.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TulaneTULNUNT −10.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UABUABUNT −16.5—wk 13

Model on UNT games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +5.1 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.96–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins25%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game70%
Win conference36%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.331st
Success rate50.7%5th
Pass EPA+0.501st
Rush EPA+0.1340th
Explosive rate17.1%5th
Quality-drive rate62.2%9th
Points per quality drive4.726th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.16120th
Success allowed45.5%119th
Pass EPA allowed+0.31133rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0266th
Explosive allowed14.2%118th
Havoc rate12.2%109th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.1118th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin−2.0 yd101st
Hidden points / game−1.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−5.1%110th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.356th
Schedule played−2.588th
Schedule remaining−6.4105th
Full schedule−3.990th
Pregame expected wins4.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 56th · +2.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Texasoff +0.33 1stdef +0.16 allowed · 120th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.