Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Memphis

6–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+2.8
Rank
55
Résumé
35
Projected wins
8.3▲ 2.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at UNLVUNLVMEM +6.5MEM +5.5W 27–2156MEM · W
Sat, Sep 59/5Arkansas StateARSTMEM −12.8MEM −8.5W 42–2463MEM · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Boise StateBOISMEM +3.9MEM +8.5L 20–3833MEM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19UT MartinUT MartinMEM −37.0MEM −33.5W 45–2169
Sat, Oct 310/3at CharlotteCLTMEM −18.4MEM −20.0W 59–877CLT · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10UABUABMEM −15.5MEM −14.5W 38–1380MEM · W
Fri, Oct 1610/16at TulaneTULNMEM −6.3MEM −7.0L 17–3142TULN · W
Thu, Oct 2210/22East CarolinaECUMEM −6.6MEM −10.5W 41–3455ECU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31ArmyARMYMEM −1.1MEM −6.0ARMY +5.5Lean · +0.5%
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NavyNAVYMEM PK—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27TempleTEMMEM −10.4—wk 13

Model on MEM games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.36–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins13%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game24%
Win conference13%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
  • A CFP bid: 3% with a win vs Army, 0% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1541st
Success rate48.7%21st
Pass EPA+0.1840th
Rush EPA+0.1241st
Explosive rate16.4%10th
Quality-drive rate51.6%65th
Points per quality drive3.978th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0571st
Success allowed37.2%28th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0733rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.16120th
Explosive allowed14.6%123rd
Havoc rate13.5%81st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.395th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−1.3 yd92nd
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+1.3%42nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.855th
Schedule played−4.9109th
Schedule remaining−3.479th
Full schedule−4.493rd
Pregame expected wins5.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 55th · +2.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Memphisoff +0.15 41stdef +0.05 allowed · 71st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.