Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Memphis
6–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+2.8
Rank
55
Résumé
35
Projected wins
8.3▲ 2.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MEM games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 4 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.36–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins13%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game24%
Win conference13%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 3% with a win vs Army, 0% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1541st
Success rate48.7%21st
Pass EPA+0.1840th
Rush EPA+0.1241st
Explosive rate16.4%10th
Quality-drive rate51.6%65th
Points per quality drive3.978th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0571st
Success allowed37.2%28th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0733rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.16120th
Explosive allowed14.6%123rd
Havoc rate13.5%81st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.395th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−1.3 yd92nd
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+1.3%42nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.855th
Schedule played−4.9109th
Schedule remaining−3.479th
Full schedule−4.493rd
Pregame expected wins5.0of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 55th · +2.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Memphisoff +0.15 41stdef +0.05 allowed · 71st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Memphisoff +0.15 41stdef +0.05 allowed · 71st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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