Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Army
5–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−0.5
Rank
70
Résumé
45
Projected wins
8.2▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ARMY games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–2, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 2 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.25–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 3.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game37%
Win conference17%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.268th
Success rate50.2%10th
Pass EPA+0.2527th
Rush EPA+0.262nd
Explosive rate12.0%83rd
Quality-drive rate62.3%8th
Points per quality drive4.528th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.27135th
Success allowed45.2%114th
Pass EPA allowed+0.31132nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.22133rd
Explosive allowed15.2%127th
Havoc rate11.9%119th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.828th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+2.2 yd45th
Hidden points / game+5.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected+28.4%2nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.570th
Schedule played−4.498th
Schedule remaining−3.986th
Full schedule−4.291st
Pregame expected wins3.9of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 70th · −0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Armyoff +0.26 8thdef +0.27 allowed · 135th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Armyoff +0.26 8thdef +0.27 allowed · 135th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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