Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Army

5–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−0.5
Rank
70
Résumé
45
Projected wins
8.2▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5BryantBryantARMY −29.2ARMY −36.5W 59–388
Sat, Sep 129/12South FloridaUSFARMY +14.2ARMY −3.0L 24–2841USF · W
Fri, Sep 259/25at TempleTEMARMY +2.5ARMY −3.0W 21–1749TEM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Louisiana TechLTARMY PKARMY −2.0L 29–3144LT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TulaneTULNARMY −6.5ARMY −3.5W 20–1760ARMY · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Florida AtlanticFAUARMY −3.6ARMY −2.5W 56–2449ARMY · W
Fri, Oct 2310/23at TulsaTLSAARMY −3.0ARMY +1.5W 38–3537ARMY · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at MemphisMEMARMY +1.1ARMY +6.0ARMY +5.5Lean · +0.5%
Sat, Nov 711/7Air ForceAFARMY −10.2ARMY −5.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at RiceRICEARMY −8.3—wk 13
Sat, Dec 1212/12NavyNAVYARMY −3.3ARMY +2.5wk 15

Model on ARMY games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–2, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.25–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game37%
Win conference17%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.268th
Success rate50.2%10th
Pass EPA+0.2527th
Rush EPA+0.262nd
Explosive rate12.0%83rd
Quality-drive rate62.3%8th
Points per quality drive4.528th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.27135th
Success allowed45.2%114th
Pass EPA allowed+0.31132nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.22133rd
Explosive allowed15.2%127th
Havoc rate11.9%119th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.828th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+2.2 yd45th
Hidden points / game+5.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected+28.4%2nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.570th
Schedule played−4.498th
Schedule remaining−3.986th
Full schedule−4.291st
Pregame expected wins3.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 70th · −0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARMYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Armyoff +0.26 8thdef +0.27 allowed · 135th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.