Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ole Miss
6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+19.5
Rank
6
Résumé
12
Projected wins
8.6▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
36%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MISS games: 2–6 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–5 · home 1–2, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +4.4 · closer than the market 3 of 8
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.66–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.6 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game19%
Win conference9%
Make the CFP36%
First-round bye8%
Win it all2%
- A CFP bid: 44% with a win vs Auburn, 11% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Navy over Notre Dame — swings a CFP bid between 35% and 45%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1825th
Success rate47.7%29th
Pass EPA+0.1842nd
Rush EPA+0.1817th
Explosive rate12.3%78th
Quality-drive rate55.3%41st
Points per quality drive5.08th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0994th
Success allowed42.5%85th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1086th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0998th
Explosive allowed13.7%109th
Havoc rate13.7%75th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.339th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−1.5 yd96th
Hidden points / game−0.2gave up
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−10.9%133rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+19.56th
Schedule played+7.021st
Schedule remaining+13.02nd
Full schedule+8.615th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 6th · +19.5AP 12thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Ole Missoff +0.18 25thdef +0.09 allowed · 94th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Ole Missoff +0.18 25thdef +0.09 allowed · 94th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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