Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ole Miss

6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+19.5
Rank
6
Résumé
12
Projected wins
8.6▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
36%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6LouisvilleLOUMISS −14.8MISS −6.5W 41–3851MISS · L
Sat, Sep 129/12CharlotteCLTMISS −44.0MISS −47.5W 41–966CLT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19LSULSUMISS −2.3MISS +2.5W 32–2456MISS · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at FloridaFLAMISS PKMISS +2.0L 28–5243MISS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at VanderbiltVANMISS −2.7MISS −10.0W 52–1780VAN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17MissouriMIZMISS PKMISS −6.0W 31–379MIZ · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TexasTEXMISS −0.6MISS +3.5L 27–3446MISS · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31AuburnAUBMISS −11.4MISS −13.5W 45–15—AUB · L
Sat, Nov 711/7GeorgiaUGAMISS +4.7MISS +3.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at OklahomaOUMISS −3.4MISS +4.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21WoffordWoffordMISS −53.8—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27Mississippi StateMSSTMISS −15.8MISS −14.5wk 13

Model on MISS games: 2–6 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–5 · home 1–2, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +4.4 · closer than the market 3 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.66–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game19%
Win conference9%
Make the CFP36%
First-round bye8%
Win it all2%
  • A CFP bid: 44% with a win vs Auburn, 11% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Navy over Notre Dame — swings a CFP bid between 35% and 45%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1825th
Success rate47.7%29th
Pass EPA+0.1842nd
Rush EPA+0.1817th
Explosive rate12.3%78th
Quality-drive rate55.3%41st
Points per quality drive5.08th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0994th
Success allowed42.5%85th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1086th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0998th
Explosive allowed13.7%109th
Havoc rate13.7%75th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.339th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−1.5 yd96th
Hidden points / game−0.2gave up
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−10.9%133rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+19.56th
Schedule played+7.021st
Schedule remaining+13.02nd
Full schedule+8.615th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 6th · +19.5AP 12thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinLouisvilleSMUMISSgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ole Missoff +0.18 25thdef +0.09 allowed · 94th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.