AP #3Georgia
7–1 · Ours #2Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–27Our projected score
AP #12Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #6Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UGA 58%
UGA 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UGA −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −4.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.56oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 57.9 · first seen 55.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UGA −3.5-105 FanDuel47% to cover · -9.0% EV
UGA −3.5-105 FanDuel47% to cover · -9.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Gunner StocktonSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3217th
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 17
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Took over mid-game last game
Trinidad ChamblissSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1553rd
- Comp %
- 64.6
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Ole Missoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseGeorgia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.10 | 11th |
| 29th | 47.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 36.0% | 20th |
| 42nd | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.09 | 23rd |
| 18th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.12 | 7th |
| 76th | 12.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.1% | 28th |
| Georgiaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | +0.21 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.09 | 94th |
| 1st | 53.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.5% | 84th |
| 34th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 89th |
| 14th | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.09 | 96th |
| 5th | 16.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.7% | 109th |
Team stats
| Ole MissMISS | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.338th | +1.240th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.597th | +6.015th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 55%40th | 62%8th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.058th | 5.124th |
| Time of possession | 24:54127th | 29:4249th |
| Plays per game | 6932nd | 61119th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 10 | 12 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.7%76th | 18.3%8th |
Season so far
Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12W
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5L
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3Lat Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4Wat Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3Wvs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is