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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Vanderbilt

3–5 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
−1.8
Rank
79
Résumé
105
Projected wins
4.0▼ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Austin PeayAustin PeayVAN −31.4VAN −28.5W 28–977
Sat, Sep 129/12DelawareDELVAN −25.5VAN −20.5W 35–2661DEL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19NC StateNCSUVAN −6.0VAN −4.5W 35–3165VAN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at AuburnAUBVAN +1.2VAN +9.5L 15–2157VAN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at GeorgiaUGAVAN +22.1VAN +24.5L 14–3830VAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Ole MissMISSVAN +2.7VAN +10.0L 17–5221VAN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17ArkansasARKVAN −6.0VAN −6.0L 21–3136ARK · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at KentuckyUKVAN +12.0VAN +10.5L 17–3432UK · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at Mississippi StateMSSTVAN +6.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14AlabamaALAVAN +17.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at FloridaFLAVAN +12.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28TennesseeTENNVAN +10.4VAN +3.0wk 13

Model on VAN games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 4–1 · home 1–2, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.03–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.0
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0772nd
Success rate41.3%90th
Pass EPA+0.0773rd
Rush EPA+0.0775th
Explosive rate12.4%75th
Quality-drive rate47.4%91st
Points per quality drive3.6100th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1097th
Success allowed45.2%113th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1294th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0895th
Explosive allowed11.7%74th
Havoc rate12.1%113th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.178th
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −4.5
Field position margin+1.5 yd57th
Hidden points / game−2.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.13.1 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−2.4%80th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.879th
Schedule played+7.019th
Schedule remaining+12.37th
Full schedule+9.012th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 79th · −1.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUVANgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Vanderbiltoff +0.07 72nddef +0.10 allowed · 97th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.