Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Charlotte
1–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
9–41FinalWe had CLT 7 – MISS 51
AP #9Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 99%MISS won
MISS 99%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −46.5.MISS −45oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −44 · CLT covered by 13
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.8.59.5final 50 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CLT +47.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
CLT +47.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Cole Gonzales14/21 · 128 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q4 by Conner Harrell
Trinidad Chambliss23/26 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2969th pct
- Comp %
- 88.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Deuce Knight
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Charlotteoffense | Played like MISS +16.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲1.5 | 58th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.07 | 57th |
| 69th | +0.26▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.16 | 31st |
| 19th | −0.20▼0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.25 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseCharlotte | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | 62.8%▲15.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 62.8%▼12.8 | 4th |
| 75th | +0.23▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.04 | 25th |
| 67th | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.11 | 33rd |
| 79th | +0.25▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.05 | 21st |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CharlotteCLT | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3056th | Own 3057th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts22nd | +2.5 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4524th | 4321st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.43rd | +27.497th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MISS +1.4: kicking +2.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.443rd | +1.457th |
Season so far
Charlotte1–7 · 64th-hardest schedule
Lvs The Citadel41–43missed −20.5
Lat Ole Miss9–41covered +45
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45L
at App State21–26covered +17.5
at App State21–26covered +17.5L
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5L
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5L
at North Texas10–50missed +28
at North Texas10–50missed +28W
at Temple38–31covered +17.5
at Temple38–31covered +17.5L
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5Wvs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3W
vs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is