Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

LSU
6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+22.5
Rank
4
Résumé
22
Projected wins
8.7▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
61%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on LSU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–4 · home 2–1, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +6.0 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.76–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP61%
First-round bye13%
Win it all8%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Mississippi State over Texas — swings a CFP bid between 60% and 64%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1731st
Success rate50.7%6th
Pass EPA+0.2528th
Rush EPA+0.1057th
Explosive rate13.8%40th
Quality-drive rate60.0%13th
Points per quality drive4.818th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.212nd
Success allowed33.0%2nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.283rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.148th
Explosive allowed9.3%16th
Havoc rate20.6%2nd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.275th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+2.9 yd38th
Hidden points / game+2.6banked
Luck, wins−1.17.1 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 8–0
Rush rate over expected−5.4%114th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.54th
Schedule played+7.515th
Schedule remaining+12.45th
Full schedule+9.39th
Pregame expected wins4.6of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 4th · +22.5AP 15thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
LSUoff +0.17 31stdef −0.21 allowed · 2nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
LSUoff +0.17 31stdef −0.21 allowed · 2nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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