Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

LSU

6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+22.5
Rank
4
Résumé
22
Projected wins
8.7▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
61%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5ClemsonCLEMLSU −5.1LSU −10.5W 51–1085CLEM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Louisiana TechLTLSU −24.5LSU −32.5W 45–1458LT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Ole MissMISSLSU +2.3LSU −2.5L 24–3245MISS · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Texas A&MTA&MLSU +0.9LSU −7.5W 35–685TA&M · L
Sat, Oct 310/3McNeeseMcNeeseLSU −56.3LSU −53.5W 63–1495
Sat, Oct 1010/10at KentuckyUKLSU −6.5LSU −10.0L 34–3559UK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Mississippi StateMSSTLSU −10.9LSU −11.5W 31–078MSST · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at AuburnAUBLSU −5.0LSU −8.5W 38–1774AUB · L
Sat, Nov 711/7AlabamaALALSU −2.7LSU −4.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TexasTEXLSU −6.5LSU +2.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TennesseeTENNLSU −5.2LSU −1.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ArkansasARKLSU −18.2—wk 13

Model on LSU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–4 · home 2–1, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +6.0 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.76–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP61%
First-round bye13%
Win it all8%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1731st
Success rate50.7%6th
Pass EPA+0.2528th
Rush EPA+0.1057th
Explosive rate13.8%40th
Quality-drive rate60.0%13th
Points per quality drive4.818th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.212nd
Success allowed33.0%2nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.283rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.148th
Explosive allowed9.3%16th
Havoc rate20.6%2nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.275th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+2.9 yd38th
Hidden points / game+2.6banked
Luck, wins−1.17.1 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 8–0
Rush rate over expected−5.4%114th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.54th
Schedule played+7.515th
Schedule remaining+12.45th
Full schedule+9.39th
Pregame expected wins4.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 4th · +22.5AP 15thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMULSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
LSUoff +0.17 31stdef −0.21 allowed · 2nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.