Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma

4–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.6
Rank
22
Résumé
40
Projected wins
6.5▼ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
5%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4UTEPUTEPOU −30.8OU −41.5W 51–068UTEP · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at MichiganMICHOU −2.2OU −6.5L 10–1739MICH · W
Sat, Sep 199/19New MexicoUNMOU −22.8OU −21.5W 14–663UNM · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at GeorgiaUGAOU +14.8OU +13.5L 13–4135UGA · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TexasTEXOU +7.0OU +8.0W 27–2446OU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17KentuckyUKOU −5.7OU −7.0L 13–2141UK · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Mississippi StateMSSTOU −3.1OU −3.0W 23–1559OU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31South CarolinaSCOU −5.7OU −3.5OU −3.5Lean · +2.0%
Sat, Nov 711/7at FloridaFLAOU +1.3OU +4.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Ole MissMISSOU +3.4OU −4.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Texas A&MTA&MOU −5.0OU −2.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at MissouriMIZOU +4.7—wk 13

Model on OU games: 6–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 3–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.54–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)80%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP5%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.10135th
Success rate36.5%131st
Pass EPA−0.06117th
Rush EPA−0.15134th
Explosive rate9.9%127th
Quality-drive rate42.5%117th
Points per quality drive2.9129th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0916th
Success allowed34.2%9th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1911th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0151st
Explosive allowed9.9%24th
Havoc rate15.4%40th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.146th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −4.0
Field position margin−5.4 yd132nd
Hidden points / game−3.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.23.8 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−1.5%69th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.622nd
Schedule played+7.020th
Schedule remaining+12.19th
Full schedule+9.110th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 22nd · +10.6AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oklahomaoff −0.10 135thdef −0.09 allowed · 16th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.