Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma
4–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.6
Rank
22
Résumé
40
Projected wins
6.5▼ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
5%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OU games: 6–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 3–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 5 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.54–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)80%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP5%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 8% with a win vs South Carolina, <1% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.10135th
Success rate36.5%131st
Pass EPA−0.06117th
Rush EPA−0.15134th
Explosive rate9.9%127th
Quality-drive rate42.5%117th
Points per quality drive2.9129th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0916th
Success allowed34.2%9th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1911th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0151st
Explosive allowed9.9%24th
Havoc rate15.4%40th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.146th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −4.0
Field position margin−5.4 yd132nd
Hidden points / game−3.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.23.8 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−1.5%69th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.622nd
Schedule played+7.020th
Schedule remaining+12.19th
Full schedule+9.110th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 22nd · +10.6AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Oklahomaoff −0.10 135thdef −0.09 allowed · 16th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Oklahomaoff −0.10 135thdef −0.09 allowed · 16th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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