Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Auburn

4–4 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+6.0
Rank
40
Résumé
44
Projected wins
6.8▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5BaylorBAYAUB −14.1AUB −7.0W 17–1642AUB · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Southern MissUSMAUB −20.3AUB −30.0W 43–889USM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19FloridaFLAAUB +3.6AUB +2.5L 39–4452AUB · L
Sat, Sep 269/26VanderbiltVANAUB −1.2AUB −9.5W 21–1544VAN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at TennesseeTENNAUB +4.4AUB +7.0L 14–2442AUB · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at GeorgiaUGAAUB +21.4AUB +19.0W 27–2452UGA · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24LSULSUAUB +5.0AUB +8.5L 17–3827AUB · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Ole MissMISSAUB +11.4AUB +13.5L 15–45—AUB · L
Sat, Nov 711/7ArkansasARKAUB −11.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21SamfordSamfordAUB −48.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at AlabamaALAAUB +13.0AUB +10.0wk 13

Model on AUB games: 1–7 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–5 · home 0–4, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 2 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)61%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
  • A CFP bid: 4% with a win vs Ole Miss, 0% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0490th
Success rate40.5%103rd
Pass EPA+0.0292nd
Rush EPA+0.0770th
Explosive rate13.2%58th
Quality-drive rate48.1%88th
Points per quality drive4.258th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0677th
Success allowed42.6%86th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0365th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0997th
Explosive allowed10.3%31st
Havoc rate13.4%82nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.563rd
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−1.4 yd95th
Hidden points / game+2.2banked
Luck, wins+0.13.9 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−2.3%79th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.040th
Schedule played+10.82nd
Schedule remaining+8.232nd
Full schedule+10.13rd
Pregame expected wins1.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 40th · +6.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUAUBgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Auburnoff +0.04 90thdef +0.06 allowed · 77th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.