Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Auburn
4–4 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+6.0
Rank
40
Résumé
44
Projected wins
6.8▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on AUB games: 1–7 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–5 · home 0–4, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 2 of 8
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)61%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 4% with a win vs Ole Miss, 0% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0490th
Success rate40.5%103rd
Pass EPA+0.0292nd
Rush EPA+0.0770th
Explosive rate13.2%58th
Quality-drive rate48.1%88th
Points per quality drive4.258th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0677th
Success allowed42.6%86th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0365th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0997th
Explosive allowed10.3%31st
Havoc rate13.4%82nd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.563rd
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−1.4 yd95th
Hidden points / game+2.2banked
Luck, wins+0.13.9 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−2.3%79th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.040th
Schedule played+10.82nd
Schedule remaining+8.232nd
Full schedule+10.13rd
Pregame expected wins1.9of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 40th · +6.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Auburnoff +0.04 90thdef +0.06 allowed · 77th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Auburnoff +0.04 90thdef +0.06 allowed · 77th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.




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