Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia

6–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+22.7
Rank
3
Résumé
16
Projected wins
10.0▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
77%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Tennessee StateTennessee StateUGA −31.4UGA −48.5W 63–393
Sat, Sep 129/12Western KentuckyWKUUGA −37.5UGA −40.0W 70–2099WKU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at ArkansasARKUGA −26.9UGA −24.5W 45–1784UGA · W
Sat, Sep 269/26OklahomaOUUGA −14.8UGA −13.5W 41–1365UGA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3VanderbiltVANUGA −22.1UGA −24.5W 38–1470VAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at AlabamaALAUGA −1.8UGA +1.5W 20–1764UGA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17AuburnAUBUGA −21.4UGA −19.0L 24–2749UGA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31FloridaFLAUGA −12.5UGA −11.5UGA −11.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Ole MissMISSUGA −4.7UGA −3.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14MissouriMIZUGA −12.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at South CarolinaSCUGA −13.8—wk 12

Model on UGA games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins72%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game74%
Win conference47%
Make the CFP77%
First-round bye47%
Win it all13%
  • A CFP bid: 85% with a win vs Florida, 46% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.267th
Success rate53.9%1st
Pass EPA+0.3114th
Rush EPA+0.2111th
Explosive rate17.8%4th
Quality-drive rate61.0%12th
Points per quality drive5.61st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1014th
Success allowed33.9%8th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1318th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0630th
Explosive allowed10.0%25th
Havoc rate16.8%20th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.437th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+5.4 yd19th
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.06.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−6.3%118th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.73rd
Schedule played+3.539th
Schedule remaining+9.721st
Full schedule+6.322nd
Pregame expected wins4.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 3rd · +22.7AP 3rdWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUGAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgiaoff +0.26 7thdef −0.10 allowed · 14th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.