Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia
6–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+22.7
Rank
3
Résumé
16
Projected wins
10.0▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
77%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UGA games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 4 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins72%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game74%
Win conference47%
Make the CFP77%
First-round bye47%
Win it all13%
- A CFP bid: 85% with a win vs Florida, 46% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.267th
Success rate53.9%1st
Pass EPA+0.3114th
Rush EPA+0.2111th
Explosive rate17.8%4th
Quality-drive rate61.0%12th
Points per quality drive5.61st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1014th
Success allowed33.9%8th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1318th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0630th
Explosive allowed10.0%25th
Havoc rate16.8%20th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.437th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+5.4 yd19th
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.06.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−6.3%118th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.73rd
Schedule played+3.539th
Schedule remaining+9.721st
Full schedule+6.322nd
Pregame expected wins4.0of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 3rd · +22.7AP 3rdWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Georgiaoff +0.26 7thdef −0.10 allowed · 14th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Georgiaoff +0.26 7thdef −0.10 allowed · 14th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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