Week 1 report · Sun, Sep 6 · 2026 Week 1
AP #24Louisville
5–3 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–41FinalWe had LOU 21 – MISS 36
AP #9Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 81%MISS won
MISS 81%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −6.5.MISS −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.8 · LOU covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.55final 79 · over by 24
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MISS −6.5Lmatched the close
MISS −6.5Lmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisvilleoffense | Played like MISS +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.8%▼5.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.8%▼4.1 | 39th |
| 76th | +0.24▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.20 | 24th |
| 78th | +0.36▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.28 | 22nd |
| 64th | +0.14▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.15 | 37th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseLouisville | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.1%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.1%▼5.4 | 35th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.22 | 22nd |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.32 | 19th |
| 63rd | +0.13▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.11 | 37th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisvilleLOU | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 3271st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.4 pts97th | +0.3 pts57th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.053rd | −1.047th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LOU +6.0: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.3, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −0.4. | +6.077th | −6.023rd |
Season so far
Louisville5–3 · 28th-hardest schedule
Lat Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3L
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5L
at NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5W
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5W
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
Wvs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3W
vs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 6, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is