Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #13Missouri
5–2 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–31FinalWe had MIZ 28 – MISS 28
AP #9Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIZ 51%MISS won
MIZ 51%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −6.MISS −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · MISS covered by 23.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.57.5final 34 · under by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MIZ +6Lbeat the close by 1.5
MIZ +6Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Austin Simmons25/44 · 339 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Trinidad Chambliss20/36 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3475th pct
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missourioffense | Played like MISS +24.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.9%▼8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.9%▲12.1 | 85th |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.20 | 73rd |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.10 | 52nd |
| 8th | −0.35▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.41 | 92nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseMissouri | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.5%▼2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.5%▼13.4 | 30th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.48 | 15th |
| 77th | +0.34▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.47 | 23rd |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.52 | 13th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MissouriMIZ | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2521st | Own 2310th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.5 pts5th | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.45th | +24.495th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MISS +2.7: field position −0.8, kicking +2.3, 4th downs +1.1. | −2.736th | +2.764th |
Season so far
Missouri5–2 · 23rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
W
at Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4W
vs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27L
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5W
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5W
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5Lat Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3Lat Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5Wvs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3W
vs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is