AP #12Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #6Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24Our projected score
Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #22Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MISS 58%
MISS 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OU −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.4 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.53.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.0 · first seen 53.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Trinidad ChamblissSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1553rd
- Comp %
- 64.6
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
John MateerSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0580th
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oklahomaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136th | −0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.09 | 94th |
| 132nd | 36.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.5% | 84th |
| 117th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 89th |
| 134th | −0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.09 | 96th |
| 128th | 9.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.7% | 109th |
| Ole Missoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.09 | 13th |
| 29th | 47.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.2% | 7th |
| 42nd | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.19 | 11th |
| 18th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 52nd |
| 76th | 12.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.9% | 23rd |
Team stats
| OklahomaOU | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.146th | +1.338th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −5.4130th | −1.597th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%117th | 55%40th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.94129th | 5.058th |
| Time of possession | 28:3677th | 24:54127th |
| Plays per game | 6395th | 6932nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 19 – 14 | 15 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.4%37th | 13.7%76th |
Season so far
Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3W
vs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12Wvs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is