Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida
5–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+8.7
Rank
31
Résumé
20
Projected wins
7.4▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
7%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on FLA games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–3 · home 1–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 4 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.45–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)79%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game8%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP7%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 26% with a win vs Georgia, 2% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2214th
Success rate45.5%43rd
Pass EPA+0.394th
Rush EPA+0.0958th
Explosive rate13.4%51st
Quality-drive rate58.0%23rd
Points per quality drive4.817th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14114th
Success allowed44.2%107th
Pass EPA allowed+0.14100th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15118th
Explosive allowed10.8%45th
Havoc rate16.1%30th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.812th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+6.0 yd15th
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+2.2%39th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+8.731st
Schedule played+9.74th
Schedule remaining+9.919th
Full schedule+9.85th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 31st · +8.7AP 17thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Floridaoff +0.22 14thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Floridaoff +0.22 14thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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