Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida

5–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+8.7
Rank
31
Résumé
20
Projected wins
7.4▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
7%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Florida AtlanticFAUFLA −24.3FLA −26.5W 66–2173FAU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12CampbellCampbellFLA −43.5FLA −51.0W 52–388
Sat, Sep 199/19at AuburnAUBFLA −3.6FLA −2.5W 44–3949AUB · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Ole MissMISSFLA PKFLA −2.0W 52–2857MISS · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at MissouriMIZFLA PKFLA −5.0L 17–4518MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10South CarolinaSCFLA −9.4FLA −14.0L 19–3838SC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at TexasTEXFLA +10.0FLA +10.0W 27–2468FLA · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at GeorgiaUGAFLA +12.5FLA +11.5UGA −11.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7OklahomaOUFLA −1.3FLA −4.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at KentuckyUKFLA +2.8—wk 11

Model on FLA games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–3 · home 1–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.45–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)79%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game8%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP7%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 26% with a win vs Georgia, 2% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2214th
Success rate45.5%43rd
Pass EPA+0.394th
Rush EPA+0.0958th
Explosive rate13.4%51st
Quality-drive rate58.0%23rd
Points per quality drive4.817th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14114th
Success allowed44.2%107th
Pass EPA allowed+0.14100th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15118th
Explosive allowed10.8%45th
Havoc rate16.1%30th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.812th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+6.0 yd15th
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+2.2%39th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+8.731st
Schedule played+9.74th
Schedule remaining+9.919th
Full schedule+9.85th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 31st · +8.7AP 17thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFLAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Floridaoff +0.22 14thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.