Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #7Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–34FinalWe had MISS 27 – TEX 27
AP #19Texas
5–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 51%TEX won
MISS 51%TEX wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −3.TEX −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +0.6 · TEX covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.55final 61 · over by 6
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MISS +3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
MISS +3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trinidad Chambliss25/52 · 250 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 48.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Arch Manning18/30 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.613rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole Missoffense | Played like TEX +5.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 32.9%▼19.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.9%▲1.3 | 80th |
| 18th | −0.18▼0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.04 | 83rd |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.57 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.21 | 79th |
| 39th | −0.03▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.19 | 61st |
| 4th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 96th |
| Texasoffense | defenseOle Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.5%▼5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.5%▲4.4 | 66th |
| 26th | −0.11▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.21 | 75th |
| 4th | −0.61▼0.57 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.61▲0.85 | 96th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.33 | 17th |
| 4th | 3▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.2 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole MissMISS | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts67th | +0.7 pts67th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8298th | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.419th | +11.481st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts86th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MISS +6.8: field position +0.6, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +6.880th | −6.820th |
Season so far
Ole Miss6–2 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5Lat Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3W
vs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Texas5–2 · 2nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Lvs Florida24–27missed −11.5
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5Wvs Ole Miss34–27covered −3
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is