Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
15–45FinalWe had AUB 22 – MISS 33
AP #12Ole Miss
6–2 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 76%MISS won
MISS 76%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −13.MISS −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.4 · MISS covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.58.5final 60 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB +13.5Lbeat the close by 3.5
AUB +13.5Lbeat the close by 3.5The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Auburnoffense | Played like MISS +12.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.3%▼5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.3%▲6.0 | 74th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.01 | 49th |
| 51st | +0.07▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.05 | 49th |
| 50th | +0.04▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.03 | 50th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.1 | 59th |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseAuburn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.2%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.2%▼8.5 | 19th |
| 75th | +0.24▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.19 | 25th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.27 | 30th |
| 76th | +0.22▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.16 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AuburnAUB | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 3163rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 8498th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.122nd | +10.178th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts62nd | −0.6 pts19th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MISS +2.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.1, 4th downs −1.0. | −2.735th | +2.765th |
Season so far
Auburn4–4 · 2nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5W
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7Lat Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Ole Miss6–2 · 22nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45Wvs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3Lat Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4Wat Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5W
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5
vs Missouri31–3covered −4.5L
at Texas27–34missed +3
at Texas27–34missed +3Wvs Auburn45–15covered −10
vs Auburn45–15covered −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is