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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at ARK · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:45 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Missouri

5–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+13.4
Rank
14
Résumé
23
Projected wins
7.8▲ 2.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
11%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3Arkansas-Pine BluffArkansas-Pine BluffMIZ −31.3MIZ −55.5W 54–1495
Fri, Sep 119/11at KansasKUMIZ −5.8MIZ −6.5W 38–2174KU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19TroyTROYMIZ −27.1MIZ −27.5W 27–1759TROY · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Mississippi StateMSSTMIZ +4.5MIZ +3.5L 24–3150MIZ · L
Sat, Oct 310/3FloridaFLAMIZ PKMIZ +5.0W 45–1782MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Texas A&MTA&MMIZ −8.2MIZ −3.5W 27–664MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Ole MissMISSMIZ PKMIZ +6.0L 3–3121MIZ · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at ArkansasARKMIZ −12.8MIZ −10.0MIZ −9.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7TexasTEXMIZ −1.1MIZ +3.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at GeorgiaUGAMIZ +12.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21KentuckyUKMIZ −6.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28OklahomaOUMIZ −4.7—wk 13

Model on MIZ games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.85–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)88%
9+ wins5%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP11%
First-round bye2%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 14% with a win vs Arkansas, 4% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Mississippi State over Texas — swings a CFP bid between 11% and 14%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1253rd
Success rate40.6%102nd
Pass EPA+0.2817th
Rush EPA−0.05121st
Explosive rate13.7%45th
Quality-drive rate54.4%47th
Points per quality drive3.6101st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0823rd
Success allowed35.1%16th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0831st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0724th
Explosive allowed12.3%83rd
Havoc rate18.3%9th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.190th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+7.0 yd9th
Hidden points / game+4.5banked
Luck, wins−0.15.2 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−0.3%56th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+13.414th
Schedule played+6.922nd
Schedule remaining+11.810th
Full schedule+9.111th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 14th · +13.4AP 23rdWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMIZgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Missourioff +0.12 53rddef −0.08 allowed · 23rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.