Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–41FinalWe had OU 16 – UGA 31
AP #2Georgia
7–1 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 81%UGA won
UGA 81%UGA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UGA −13.5.UGA −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.8 · UGA covered by 16
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.7.44final 54 · over by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
John Mateer24/33 · 231 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Gunner Stockton13/24 · 169 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 54.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahomaoffense | Played like UGA +16.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.5%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.5%▲6.7 | 88th |
| 7th | −0.32▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.21 | 93rd |
| 25th | −0.19▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.08 | 75th |
| 2nd | −0.58▼0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.58▲0.46 | 98th |
| 4th | 3▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
| Georgiaoffense | defenseOklahoma | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.9%▼16.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▼4.7 | 61st |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.06 | 63rd |
| 33rd | −0.10▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▼0.09 | 67th |
| 53rd | +0.06▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.06 | 47th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OklahomaOU | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 4097th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts16th | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4422nd | 3613th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.336th | +4.364th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts11th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UGA +17.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.6, kicking +2.7, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −17.22nd | +17.298th |
Season so far
Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21Lat Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5Wvs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12W
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5L
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is