Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
South Carolina
4–3 · Ours #23Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–28Our projected score
Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #22Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OU 64%
OU 64%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.44.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.8 · opened 44.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.OU −3.5+100 FanDuel51% to cover · +2.0% EV
OU −3.5+100 FanDuel51% to cover · +2.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
LaNorris SellersJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0974th
- Comp %
- 60.5
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
John MateerSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0580th
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oklahomaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSouth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135th | −0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 104th |
| 131st | 36.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.9% | 86th |
| 117th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.19 | 114th |
| 134th | −0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.04 | 71st |
| 125th | 9.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.7% | 76th |
| South Carolinaoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | +0.16 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.09 | 16th |
| 65th | 43.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.2% | 10th |
| 74th | +0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.19 | 10th |
| 4th | +0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 52nd |
| 58th | 13.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.9% | 25th |
Team stats
| OklahomaOU | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.146th | +1.241st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −5.4132nd | −0.685th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%118th | 54%52nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.94129th | 4.2656th |
| Time of possession | 28:3675th | 28:4870th |
| Plays per game | 6392nd | 7023rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | −3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 19 – 14 | 12 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.4%39th | 14.9%52nd |
Season so far
South Carolina4–3 · 24th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3L
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5W
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5Oklahoma4–3 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5Lvs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7Wat Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is