Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #11Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–17FinalWe had OU 29 – MICH 26
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 55%MICH won
OU 55%MICH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −6.OU −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.2 · MICH covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.43.5final 27 · under by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
MICH +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
John Mateer17/33 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3511th pct
- Comp %
- 51.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Bryce Underwood9/17 · 111 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 52.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahomaoffense | Played like MICH +6.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.9%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.9% | 77th |
| 18th | −0.17▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▼0.01 | 82nd |
| 14th | −0.35▼0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.13 | 86th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.27 | 46th |
| 15th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 85th |
| Michiganoffense | defenseOklahoma | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.6%▼13.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.6%▲7.4 | 90th |
| 41st | 0.00▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.09 | 59th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.16 | 60th |
| 46th | +0.01▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01 | 54th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OklahomaOU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 191st | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.056th | −2.044th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts29th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MICH +10.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.0, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.9. | −10.210th | +10.290th |
Season so far
Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41Lat Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5Wvs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5Wvs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is