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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

South Carolina

4–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.4
Rank
23
Résumé
57
Projected wins
6.3▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Kent StateKENTSC −26.9SC −36.5W 57–089KENT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12TowsonTowsonSC −41.9SC −44.5W 45–970
Sat, Sep 199/19Mississippi StateMSSTSC −3.5SC −3.5L 34–4127MSST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at AlabamaALASC +14.8SC +12.0L 18–4928ALA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3KentuckyUKSC −0.5SC −2.5L 34–3559UK · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at FloridaFLASC +9.4SC +14.0W 38–1963SC · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24TennesseeTENNSC +1.3SC −2.5W 27–2453TENN · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at OklahomaOUSC +5.7SC +3.5OU −3.5Lean · +2.0%
Sat, Nov 711/7Texas A&MTA&MSC −0.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ArkansasARKSC −6.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21GeorgiaUGASC +13.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ClemsonCLEMSC −3.3SC +3.0wk 13

Model on SC games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 1–0, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.34–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)44%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1637th
Success rate43.4%65th
Pass EPA+0.0872nd
Rush EPA+0.254th
Explosive rate13.1%59th
Quality-drive rate53.5%54th
Points per quality drive4.355th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11104th
Success allowed42.9%88th
Pass EPA allowed+0.19115th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0471st
Explosive allowed11.7%75th
Havoc rate14.9%51st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.241st
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −4.5
Field position margin−0.6 yd84th
Hidden points / game−1.6gave up
Luck, wins−0.04.0 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected−2.9%86th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.423rd
Schedule played+6.924th
Schedule remaining+8.730th
Full schedule+7.716th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 23rd · +10.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
South Carolinaoff +0.16 37thdef +0.11 allowed · 104th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.