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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kentucky

7–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.9
Rank
19
Résumé
1
Projected wins
9.0▲ 5.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
49%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Youngstown StateYoungstown StateUK −29.4UK −22.5W 45–1364
Sat, Sep 129/12AlabamaALAUK +20.3UK +10.5L 17–4529UK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Texas A&MTA&MUK +30.0UK +16.0W 31–2165TA&M · L
Sat, Sep 269/26South AlabamaUSAUK −14.1UK −20.5W 45–2176USA · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at South CarolinaSCUK +0.5UK +2.5W 35–3441UK · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10LSULSUUK +6.5UK +10.0W 35–3441UK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at OklahomaOUUK +5.7UK +7.0W 21–1360UK · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24VanderbiltVANUK −12.0UK −10.5W 34–1768UK · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at TennesseeTENNUK +4.3UK +5.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14FloridaFLAUK −2.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MissouriMIZUK +6.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LouisvilleLOUUK −6.4—wk 13

Model on UK games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.07–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins30%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference9%
Make the CFP49%
First-round bye11%
Win it all1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0960th
Success rate48.0%27th
Pass EPA+0.0388th
Rush EPA+0.1626th
Explosive rate12.8%62nd
Quality-drive rate54.2%50th
Points per quality drive4.815th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0467th
Success allowed44.1%105th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0148th
Rush EPA allowed+0.11105th
Explosive allowed10.9%52nd
Havoc rate14.9%49th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.4111th
Turnover margin+102nd · exp. +13.0
Field position margin+3.0 yd35th
Hidden points / game+6.2banked
Luck, wins+1.65.4 earned
One-score record3–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−2.9%87th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.919th
Schedule played+9.17th
Schedule remaining+11.611th
Full schedule+10.04th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 19th · +10.9AP 9thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUKgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kentuckyoff +0.09 60thdef +0.04 allowed · 67th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.