Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #15Kentucky
7–1 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–13FinalWe had UK 22 – OU 27
Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #21 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 64%UK won
OU 64%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −6.5.OU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.7 · UK covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.2.43.5final 34 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UK +7Wmatched the close
UK +7Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Kenny Minchey21/28 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
John Mateer24/39 · 270 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0238th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kentuckyoffense | Played like UK +5.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▼7.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼5.9 | 58th |
| 36th | −0.04▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.05 | 64th |
| 35th | −0.08▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.11 | 65th |
| 46th | +0.01▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01 | 54th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Oklahomaoffense | defenseKentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 40.3%▲3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲3.5 | 57th |
| 16th | −0.19▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.26 | 84th |
| 20th | −0.26▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.29 | 80th |
| 35th | −0.05▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.13 | 65th |
| 1st | 4▼2.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.3 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| KentuckyUK | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 2310th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.3 pts82nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.944th | +1.956th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts35th | +0.4 pts72nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UK +15.9: turnovers +10.4, field position +2.2, kicking −0.9, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +15.998th | −15.92nd |
Season so far
Kentucky7–1 · 8th-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5Wat Oklahoma21–13covered +7
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7W
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5Lvs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is