Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #30 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–15FinalWe had OU 27 – MSST 24
Mississippi State
4–3 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 58%OU won
OU 58%OU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −2.5.OU −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · OU covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.9.49.5final 38 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OU −3Wlost 1.5 to the close
OU −3Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
John Mateer22/29 · 262 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2262nd pct
- Comp %
- 75.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Parker Puckett17/24 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0337th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Kamario Taylor in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahomaoffense | Played like OU +2.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 32.9%▼5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.9%▲13.2 | 80th |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.05 | 52nd |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.02 | 34th |
| 30th | −0.10▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.01 | 70th |
| 41st | 1▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | defenseOklahoma | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.5%▼12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.5%▼0.7 | 74th |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.01 | 69th |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.09 | 79th |
| 66th | +0.15▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.16 | 34th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OklahomaOU | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3166th | Own 2849th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.2 pts1st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.848th | +0.852nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.6 pts17th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OU +1.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.9, kicking −3.0, 4th downs +1.2. | +1.760th | −1.741st |
Season so far
Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7Wat Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Mississippi State4–3 · 9th-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5L
at LSU0–31missed +17.5
at LSU0–31missed +17.5Lvs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-game
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is