Week 1 report · Fri, Sep 4 · 2026 Week 1
UTEP
1–7 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–51FinalWe had UTEP 10 – OU 40
AP #10Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 97%OU won
OU 97%OU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −41.5.OU −41oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −30.8 · OU covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.1.51final 51 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTEP +41.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
UTEP +41.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
EJ Colson Jr.6/12 · 52 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Raymond Moore III
John Mateer12/18 · 237 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7394th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTEPoffense | Played like OU +15.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▲11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▼8.7 | 47th |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.14 | 52nd |
| 34th | −0.09▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.10 | 66th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.14 | 37th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Oklahomaoffense | defenseUTEP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.1%▲18.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.1%▼2.7 | 14th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.47 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.12 | 17th |
| 94th | +0.68▲0.76 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.68▼0.43 | 6th |
| 55th | +0.07▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.07 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTEPUTEP | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 4399th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −6.4 pts1st | +1.6 pts88th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3310th | 329th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −26.94th | +26.996th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts29th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OU +15.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.4, kicking +5.7, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −15.82nd | +15.898th |
Season so far
UTEP1–7 · 46th-hardest schedule
Lat Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5L
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11L
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5L
vs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10L
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-game
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-gameL
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5
at North Dakota State7–31missed +23.5Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
Wvs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41Lat Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5Wvs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 4, 7:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is