Oklahoma
4–3 · Ours #22Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–27Our projected score
AP #17Florida
5–3 · Ours #33Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.FLA 54%
FLA 54%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.FLA −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.5 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.6 · first seen 48.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.OU +4.0-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.6% EV
OU +4.0-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
John MateerSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0580th
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
Tramell Jones Jr.Freshman · 1 start this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.26
- Comp %
- 70.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Floridaoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.09 | 13th |
| 41st | 45.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.2% | 7th |
| 9th | +0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.19 | 11th |
| 86th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 52nd |
| 59th | 13.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.9% | 23rd |
| Oklahomaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136th | −0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 103rd |
| 132nd | 36.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.9% | 112th |
| 117th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.08 | 86th |
| 134th | −0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 117th |
| 128th | 9.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 57th |
Team stats
| FloridaFLA | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.518th | +1.146th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +3.830th | −5.4130th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%54th | 43%117th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.8117th | 2.94129th |
| Time of possession | 32:0013th | 28:3677th |
| Plays per game | 7026th | 6395th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 16 | 19 – 14 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.5%35th | 15.4%37th |
Season so far
Oklahoma4–3 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5L
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7
vs Kentucky13–21missed −7W
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5
at Mississippi State23–15covered −1.5Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5Wat Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5Lat Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is