Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas A&M

4–4 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+8.7
Rank
32
Résumé
68
Projected wins
5.8▼ 1.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Missouri StateMOSTTA&M −32.1TA&M −41.0W 50–085MOST · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Arizona StateASUTA&M −19.8TA&M −14.5W 48–2044TA&M · W
Sat, Sep 199/19KentuckyUKTA&M −30.0TA&M −16.0L 21–3136TA&M · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at LSULSUTA&M −0.9TA&M +7.5L 6–3515TA&M · L
Sat, Oct 310/3ArkansasARKTA&M −15.2TA&M −14.0W 34–778TA&M · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MissouriMIZTA&M +8.2TA&M +3.5L 6–2737MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17The CitadelThe CitadelTA&M −48.5TA&M −45.5W 41–093
Sat, Oct 2410/24at AlabamaALATA&M +13.0TA&M +14.5L 20–3142TA&M · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at South CarolinaSCTA&M +0.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TennesseeTENNTA&M +0.7TA&M −8.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at OklahomaOUTA&M +5.0TA&M +2.5wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27TexasTEXTA&M +3.9TA&M +2.5wk 13

Model on TA&M games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 3–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +6.2 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.5
Bowl (6+)23%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01111th
Success rate42.1%75th
Pass EPA−0.09120th
Rush EPA+0.0771st
Explosive rate10.4%119th
Quality-drive rate51.3%68th
Points per quality drive4.724th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0239th
Success allowed39.6%46th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0675th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0916th
Explosive allowed15.4%130th
Havoc rate12.7%96th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.47th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. −3.5
Field position margin+3.4 yd32nd
Hidden points / game+4.4banked
Luck, wins−0.44.4 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−0.2%54th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+8.732nd
Schedule played+7.513th
Schedule remaining+13.03rd
Full schedule+9.56th
Pregame expected wins4.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 32nd · +8.7AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTA&Mgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas A&Moff −0.01 111thdef −0.02 allowed · 39th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.