California

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at UVA · Sat, Nov 14 · time TBD →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

3–6 FBS · ACC · this season

Rating

−10.4

Rank

117

Résumé

118

Projected wins

4.2▼ 0.5 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5

UCLAUCLACAL −6.7CAL +1.5L 24–4517CAL · L

Sat, Sep 129/12

at SyracuseSYRCAL +6.3CAL +3.0W 21–1842CAL · W

Sat, Sep 199/19WagnerWagnerCAL −34.0CAL −58.5W 49–783

Fri, Sep 259/25

ClemsonCLEMCAL +7.4CAL +1.0L 10–2434CLEM · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at UNLVUNLVCAL +8.5CAL +2.5L 31–3944UNLV · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

Virginia TechVTCAL +13.2CAL +9.5W 25–2064VT · L

Sat, Oct 1710/17

Wake ForestWAKECAL +15.8CAL +9.5L 7–415WAKE · W

Sat, Oct 2410/24

at SMUSMUCAL +17.9CAL +18.5L 20–5918SMU · W

Sat, Oct 3110/31

at NC StateNCSUCAL +11.5CAL +8.5L 10–31—NCSU · W

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at VirginiaUVACAL +13.9—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

StanfordSTANCAL −1.9—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

PittsburghPITTCAL +13.4—wk 13

Model on CAL games: 6–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 5–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 3–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +4.5 · closer than the market 4 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

4.23–6 banked, 3 to play · preseason 4.7

Bowl (6+)1%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game0%

Win conference0%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.05122nd

Success rate37.7%126th

Pass EPA−0.02110th

Rush EPA−0.09127th

Explosive rate10.0%125th

Quality-drive rate46.0%98th

Points per quality drive2.8131st

Defense

EPA allowed+0.15117th

Success allowed41.0%63rd

Pass EPA allowed+0.0574th

Rush EPA allowed+0.24135th

Explosive allowed16.0%135th

Havoc rate12.2%108th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−0.188th

Turnover margin+256th · exp. +2.5

Field position margin−6.5 yd135th

Hidden points / game−2.0gave up

Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned

One-score record2–1flipped 2–7

Rush rate over expected−11.9%135th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−10.4117th

Schedule played+4.933rd

Schedule remaining−1.370th

Full schedule+3.254th

Pregame expected wins2.1of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 117th · −10.4Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Californiaoff −0.05 122nddef +0.15 allowed · 117th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.