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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Clemson

4–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+2.8
Rank
54
Résumé
56
Projected wins
6.2▼ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at LSULSUCLEM +5.1CLEM +10.5L 10–5115CLEM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Georgia SouthernGASOCLEM −16.6CLEM −21.0W 22–753GASO · W
Sat, Sep 199/19North CarolinaUNCCLEM −5.8CLEM −4.5W 28–2063CLEM · W
Fri, Sep 259/25at CaliforniaCALCLEM −7.4CLEM −1.0W 24–1066CLEM · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MiamiMIACLEM +16.9CLEM +16.5L 13–4140MIA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Charleston SouthernCharleston SouthernCLEM −41.2CLEM −42.5W 37–085
Sat, Oct 2410/24Virginia TechVTCLEM +1.4CLEM −2.5L 16–2049VT · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Florida StateFSUCLEM +8.8CLEM +5.0FSU −4.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at SyracuseSYRCLEM PK—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Georgia TechGTCLEM −5.2—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at DukeDUKECLEM +5.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28South CarolinaSCCLEM +3.3CLEM −3.0wk 13

Model on CLEM games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–0, away 4–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 5 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.24–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)40%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.05125th
Success rate37.3%128th
Pass EPA−0.13129th
Rush EPA+0.0489th
Explosive rate10.4%118th
Quality-drive rate45.9%100th
Points per quality drive3.697th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0726th
Success allowed40.6%59th
Pass EPA allowed−0.199th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0791st
Explosive allowed10.1%29th
Havoc rate16.1%31st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.93rd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin+6.8 yd10th
Hidden points / game−0.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.34.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected−1.4%66th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.854th
Schedule played+6.226th
Schedule remaining+4.751st
Full schedule+5.533rd
Pregame expected wins2.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 54th · +2.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCLEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Clemsonoff −0.05 125thdef −0.07 allowed · 26th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.