Week 4 report · Fri, Sep 25 · 2026 Week 4
Clemson
4–3 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–10FinalWe had CLEM 30 – CAL 22
California
3–6 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CLEM 68%CLEM won
CLEM 68%CLEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CLEM +1.5.CLEM −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.4 · CLEM covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.7.52final 34 · under by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Tait Reynolds13/21 · 108 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 61.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele16/29 · 119 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.447th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Clemsonoffense | Played like CLEM +9.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.4%▲2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.4%▲10.7 | 74th |
| 44th | +0.01▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.25 | 56th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.67 | 90th |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.49 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▲0.01 | 20th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Californiaoffense | defenseClemson | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.7%▲0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.7%▲6.6 | 73rd |
| 12th | −0.23▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.22 | 88th |
| 14th | −0.35▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.20 | 86th |
| 34th | −0.07▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.19 | 66th |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.6 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ClemsonCLEM | CaliforniaCAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 229th | Own 2313th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts17th | −1.2 pts20th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +13.284th | −13.216th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −1.0 pts7th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CLEM +2.5: field position −0.3, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +2.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | +2.563rd | −2.537th |
Season so far
Clemson4–3 · 26th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3Wat California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Wvs Charleston Southern37–0missed −42.5
L
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
Lvs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameWvs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 25, 10:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is