Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Pittsburgh
5–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+3.4
Rank
51
Résumé
54
Projected wins
7.4▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on PITT games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.45–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.8
Bowl (6+)83%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0963rd
Success rate43.6%63rd
Pass EPA+0.1745th
Rush EPA+0.01103rd
Explosive rate11.8%88th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive4.073rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0362nd
Success allowed36.5%22nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1396th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1110th
Explosive allowed11.5%70th
Havoc rate15.0%48th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.222nd
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin+2.0 yd48th
Hidden points / game+2.1banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−5.5%116th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.451st
Schedule played+2.842nd
Schedule remaining+0.667th
Full schedule+2.061st
Pregame expected wins4.0of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 51st · +3.4AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Pittsburghoff +0.09 63rddef +0.03 allowed · 62nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pittsburghoff +0.09 63rddef +0.03 allowed · 62nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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