Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Pittsburgh

5–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+3.4
Rank
51
Résumé
54
Projected wins
7.4▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Miami (OH)M-OHPITT −15.8PITT −16.5W 59–1487M-OH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12UCFUCFPITT −13.1PITT −7.5W 12–753PITT · L
Thu, Sep 179/17SyracuseSYRPITT −15.8PITT −9.5W 27–1345PITT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26BucknellBucknellPITT −44.0PITT −54.5W 59–097
Fri, Oct 210/2at Virginia TechVTPITT PKPITT +3.5W 35–3353PITT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10North CarolinaUNCPITT −8.4PITT −4.0L 17–2145PITT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Boston CollegeBCPITT −11.3PITT −6.0L 21–2748PITT · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MiamiMIAPITT +19.9PITT +21.0L 23–5230PITT · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Georgia TechGTPITT −9.7PITT −7.5PITT −7.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LouisvilleLOUPITT +6.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at CaliforniaCALPITT −13.4—wk 13

Model on PITT games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.45–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.8
Bowl (6+)83%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0963rd
Success rate43.6%63rd
Pass EPA+0.1745th
Rush EPA+0.01103rd
Explosive rate11.8%88th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive4.073rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0362nd
Success allowed36.5%22nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1396th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1110th
Explosive allowed11.5%70th
Havoc rate15.0%48th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.222nd
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin+2.0 yd48th
Hidden points / game+2.1banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−5.5%116th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.451st
Schedule played+2.842nd
Schedule remaining+0.667th
Full schedule+2.061st
Pregame expected wins4.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 51st · +3.4AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StateMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUPITTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Pittsburghoff +0.09 63rddef +0.03 allowed · 62nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.