Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
California
3–6 · Ours #99 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–39FinalWe had CAL 22 – UNLV 30
UNLV
4–3 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNLV 70%UNLV won
UNLV 70%UNLV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −2.UNLV −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.5 · UNLV covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.0.52final 70 · over by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNLV −2.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
UNLV −2.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Brousseau19/32 · 200 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 59.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in Q2
Jackson Arnold12/23 · 191 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1228th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Californiaoffense | Played like UNLV +3.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUNLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.5%▼3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.5%▲9.8 | 81st |
| 26th | −0.11▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.13 | 74th |
| 41st | −0.03▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.07 | 59th |
| 7th | −0.36▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.36▲0.43 | 93rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
| UNLVoffense | defenseCalifornia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 27.9%▼11.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.9%▲19.4 | 91st |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.28 | 61st |
| 21st | −0.25▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.46 | 79th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.11 | 31st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CaliforniaCAL | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.9 pts24th | +0.5 pts60th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8398th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.963rd | −3.937th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts9th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNLV +10.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.8, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +1.9, penalty first downs +2.3. | −10.69th | +10.691st |
Season so far
California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5Lat UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5UNLV4–3 · 103rd-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5Wvs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5L
at Air Force31–41missed −1
at Air Force31–41missed −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is