Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Virginia Tech

6–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+4.5
Rank
48
Résumé
52
Projected wins
8.0▲ 4.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5VMIVMIVT −28.1VT −54.5W 73–398
Sat, Sep 129/12Old DominionODUVT −16.5VT −18.0W 44–2168ODU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at MarylandMDVT +5.8VT −3.0W 35–2653MD · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Boston CollegeBCVT −15.8VT −15.0W 21–1443BC · W
Fri, Oct 210/2PittsburghPITTVT PKVT −3.5L 33–3547PITT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at CaliforniaCALVT −13.2VT −9.5L 20–2536VT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Georgia TechGTVT −6.2VT −9.5W 34–2440GT · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ClemsonCLEMVT −1.4VT +2.5W 20–1652VT · W
Fri, Nov 611/6at SMUSMUVT +5.1VT +7.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MiamiMIAVT +20.7VT +16.5wk 12

Model on VT games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 3–3 · home 1–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.06–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0776th
Success rate45.0%47th
Pass EPA+0.0969th
Rush EPA+0.0487th
Explosive rate12.7%66th
Quality-drive rate51.8%64th
Points per quality drive4.535th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0682nd
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1190th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0052nd
Explosive allowed13.5%105th
Havoc rate19.8%5th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.813th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+1.2 yd62nd
Hidden points / game+0.3banked
Luck, wins+0.95.1 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−6.6%120th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.548th
Schedule played−4.599th
Schedule remaining+4.352nd
Full schedule−1.374th
Pregame expected wins4.4of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 48th · +4.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUVTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Virginia Techoff +0.07 76thdef +0.06 allowed · 82nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.