Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Virginia Tech
6–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+4.5
Rank
48
Résumé
52
Projected wins
8.0▲ 4.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on VT games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 3–3 · home 1–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.06–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0776th
Success rate45.0%47th
Pass EPA+0.0969th
Rush EPA+0.0487th
Explosive rate12.7%66th
Quality-drive rate51.8%64th
Points per quality drive4.535th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0682nd
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1190th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0052nd
Explosive allowed13.5%105th
Havoc rate19.8%5th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.813th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+1.2 yd62nd
Hidden points / game+0.3banked
Luck, wins+0.95.1 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−6.6%120th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.548th
Schedule played−4.599th
Schedule remaining+4.352nd
Full schedule−1.374th
Pregame expected wins4.4of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 48th · +4.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Virginia Techoff +0.07 76thdef +0.06 allowed · 82nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Virginia Techoff +0.07 76thdef +0.06 allowed · 82nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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