Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wake Forest
6–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+15.8
Rank
11
Résumé
14
Projected wins
10.0▲ 4.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
40%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on WAKE games: 6–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 3–0 · home 3–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins75%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game62%
Win conference28%
Make the CFP40%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
- A CFP bid: 44% with a win vs Virginia, 18% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Syracuse over SMU — swings a CFP bid between 38% and 46%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.286th
Success rate49.5%16th
Pass EPA+0.393rd
Rush EPA+0.1530th
Explosive rate18.0%3rd
Quality-drive rate67.2%3rd
Points per quality drive4.913th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0156th
Success allowed41.4%68th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0780th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0727th
Explosive allowed8.8%11th
Havoc rate15.6%38th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.393rd
Turnover margin+620th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+3.1 yd34th
Hidden points / game+3.4banked
Luck, wins+0.75.3 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected−4.7%105th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+15.811th
Schedule played−2.286th
Schedule remaining+3.255th
Full schedule−0.271st
Pregame expected wins2.3of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 11th · +15.8AP 14thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Wake Forestoff +0.28 6thdef +0.01 allowed · 56th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Wake Forestoff +0.28 6thdef +0.01 allowed · 56th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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