Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wake Forest

6–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+15.8
Rank
11
Résumé
14
Projected wins
10.0▲ 4.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
40%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3AkronAKRWAKE −26.9WAKE −24.5W 38–1672WAKE · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at PurduePURWAKE −4.0WAKE −4.5W 38–3640PUR · W
Fri, Sep 189/18MiamiMIAWAKE +24.8WAKE +23.5L 20–3351WAKE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at LouisvilleLOUWAKE +12.3WAKE +13.5W 30–2757WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 310/3StanfordSTANWAKE −14.1WAKE −12.5W 57–388WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NC StateNCSUWAKE −4.3WAKE −3.5W 38–1475WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at CaliforniaCALWAKE −15.8WAKE −9.5W 41–795WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31VirginiaUVAWAKE −16.0WAKE −13.5WAKE −13.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7MerrimackMerrimackWAKE −54.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at SMUSMUWAKE −4.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Georgia TechGTWAKE −14.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28DukeDUKEWAKE −12.8—wk 13

Model on WAKE games: 6–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 3–0 · home 3–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins75%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game62%
Win conference28%
Make the CFP40%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 44% with a win vs Virginia, 18% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Syracuse over SMU — swings a CFP bid between 38% and 46%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.286th
Success rate49.5%16th
Pass EPA+0.393rd
Rush EPA+0.1530th
Explosive rate18.0%3rd
Quality-drive rate67.2%3rd
Points per quality drive4.913th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0156th
Success allowed41.4%68th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0780th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0727th
Explosive allowed8.8%11th
Havoc rate15.6%38th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.393rd
Turnover margin+620th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+3.1 yd34th
Hidden points / game+3.4banked
Luck, wins+0.75.3 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected−4.7%105th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+15.811th
Schedule played−2.286th
Schedule remaining+3.255th
Full schedule−0.271st
Pregame expected wins2.3of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 11th · +15.8AP 14thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWAKEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wake Forestoff +0.28 6thdef +0.01 allowed · 56th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.