Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
UCLA
7–0 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–24FinalWe had UCLA 24 – CAL 30
California
3–6 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CAL 66%UCLA won
CAL 66%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCLA −1.5.UCLA −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +6.7 · UCLA covered by 18.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.53.5final 69 · over by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CAL +1.5Llost 1.0 to the close
CAL +1.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nico Iamaleava14/22 · 184 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1526th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele24/40 · 271 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAoffense | Played like UCLA +26.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 55.8%▲11.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.8%▼13.1 | 11th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.14 | 15th |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.34 | 71st |
| 99th | +0.77▲0.64 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.77▼0.58 | 1st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Californiaoffense | defenseUCLA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 32.2%▼3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.2%▲1.5 | 82nd |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▼0.01 | 81st |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▼0.08 | 78th |
| 33rd | −0.08▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.02 | 68th |
| 4th | 3▼2.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲0.7 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAUCLA | CaliforniaCAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4197th | Own 215th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts68th | +0.3 pts56th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5234th | 8799th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +27.597th | −27.53rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −1.1 pts5th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCLA +13.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.8, kicking +0.3, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | +13.096th | −13.04th |
Season so far
UCLA7–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
Wat California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5W
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5W
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
Lvs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is