Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #21Wake Forest
7–1 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–7FinalWe had WAKE 36 – CAL 20
California
3–6 · Ours #89 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 83%WAKE won
WAKE 83%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WAKE −9.WAKE −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.8 · WAKE covered by 23.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.0.53.5final 48 · under by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WAKE −9.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
WAKE −9.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Gio Lopez16/23 · 267 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8196th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jackson Brousseau18/30 · 84 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake Forestoffense | Played like WAKE +54.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | 62.5%▲12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 62.5%▼21.0 | 4th |
| 100th | +0.82▲0.54 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.82▼0.69 | 1st |
| 99th | +1.16▲0.82 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.16▼1.18 | 1st |
| 93rd | +0.43▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.20 | 7th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Californiaoffense | defenseWake Forest | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.5%▼7.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.5%▲13.1 | 88th |
| 10th | −0.27▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.28 | 91st |
| 9th | −0.46▼0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.46▲0.57 | 92nd |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.23 | 48th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake ForestWAKE | CaliforniaCAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 2415th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 329th | 4422nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +30.398th | −30.32nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −1.0 pts6th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WAKE +0.3: field position +0.5, 4th downs +2.1, penalty first downs −2.3. | +0.352nd | −0.348th |
Season so far
Wake Forest7–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5Wat California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5W
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10Lvs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19Lat NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is