Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCLA
7–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.8
Rank
16
Résumé
4
Projected wins
10.6▲ 6.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
82%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UCLA games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.67–0 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins97%
11+ wins55%
The 5 games left add 3.6 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game54%
Win conference16%
Make the CFP82%
First-round bye29%
Win it all2%
- A CFP bid: 84% with a win vs Nevada, 54% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Ohio State over USC — swings a CFP bid between 79% and 83%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1254th
Success rate46.7%36th
Pass EPA+0.0579th
Rush EPA+0.1624th
Explosive rate13.7%47th
Quality-drive rate59.5%14th
Points per quality drive3.791st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.174th
Success allowed33.5%4th
Pass EPA allowed−0.264th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0819th
Explosive allowed11.1%62nd
Havoc rate16.7%21st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.5122nd
Turnover margin+89th · exp. +8.5
Field position margin+8.0 yd6th
Hidden points / game+7.3banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+3.9%29th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.816th
Schedule played−1.077th
Schedule remaining+2.758th
Full schedule+0.567th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 16th · +12.8AP 7thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UCLAoff +0.12 54thdef −0.17 allowed · 4th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UCLAoff +0.12 54thdef −0.17 allowed · 4th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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