Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCLA

7–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.8
Rank
16
Résumé
4
Projected wins
10.6▲ 6.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
82%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at CaliforniaCALUCLA +6.7UCLA −1.5W 45–2483CAL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12San Diego StateSDSUUCLA −10.3UCLA −11.0W 28–1074SDSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19PurduePURUCLA −14.9UCLA −14.0W 52–3851UCLA · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26at MarylandMDUCLA −0.7UCLA −2.0W 54–373MD · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at OregonOREUCLA +7.9UCLA +12.0W 17–1554UCLA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17WisconsinWISUCLA −4.3UCLA −3.5W 17–757UCLA · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Michigan StateMSUUCLA −15.9UCLA −14.0W 28–1074UCLA · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31NevadaNEVUCLA −24.2UCLA −23.0UCLA −22.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at MinnesotaMINNUCLA −11.6UCLA −6.5wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13IllinoisILLUCLA −11.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MichiganMICHUCLA −1.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28USCUSCUCLA −3.0—wk 13

Model on UCLA games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.67–0 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins97%
11+ wins55%

The 5 games left add 3.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game54%
Win conference16%
Make the CFP82%
First-round bye29%
Win it all2%
  • A CFP bid: 84% with a win vs Nevada, 54% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Ohio State over USC — swings a CFP bid between 79% and 83%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1254th
Success rate46.7%36th
Pass EPA+0.0579th
Rush EPA+0.1624th
Explosive rate13.7%47th
Quality-drive rate59.5%14th
Points per quality drive3.791st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.174th
Success allowed33.5%4th
Pass EPA allowed−0.264th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0819th
Explosive allowed11.1%62nd
Havoc rate16.7%21st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.5122nd
Turnover margin+89th · exp. +8.5
Field position margin+8.0 yd6th
Hidden points / game+7.3banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+3.9%29th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.816th
Schedule played−1.077th
Schedule remaining+2.758th
Full schedule+0.567th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 16th · +12.8AP 7thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaCharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUCLAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UCLAoff +0.12 54thdef −0.17 allowed · 4th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.