California
3–6 · Ours #118Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–32Our projected score
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #66Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UVA 80%
UVA 80%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. UVA −13.9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.5
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleSophomore · 5 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.01103rd
- Comp %
- 68.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
New starter last game
Beau PribulaSenior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0386th
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 22
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Virginiaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83rd | +0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.15 | 116th |
| 43rd | 45.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.0% | 65th |
| 69th | +0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 76th |
| 92nd | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.24 | 134th |
| 111th | 10.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 16.0% | 135th |
| Californiaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122nd | −0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 108th |
| 126th | 37.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.5% | 81st |
| 109th | −0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 85th |
| 128th | −0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.17 | 123rd |
| 126th | 10.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.6% | 89th |
Team stats
| VirginiaUVA | CaliforniaCAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.466th | −0.188th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.868th | −6.5135th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%114th | 46%97th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.2157th | 2.77131st |
| Time of possession | 31:3021st | 29:5444th |
| Plays per game | 6758th | 7120th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +2 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 12 | 13 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.4%66th | 12.2%108th |
Season so far
California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
Wvs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1Wvs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14Lat SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5Lat Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is