Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
California
3–6 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–31FinalWe had CAL 24 – NCSU 35
NC State
4–4 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NCSU 76%NCSU won
NCSU 76%NCSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NCSU −8.NCSU −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.5 · NCSU covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.8.57final 41 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NCSU −8.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
NCSU −8.5Wbeat the close by 1.0The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Californiaoffense | Played like NCSU +18.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNC State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.5%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.5%▲9.2 | 66th |
| 17th | −0.18▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.47 | 83rd |
| 25th | −0.19▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.57 | 75th |
| 23rd | −0.16▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.41 | 78th |
| 41st | 1▼0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| NC Stateoffense | defenseCalifornia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.4%▲2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▲0.1 | 40th |
| 70th | +0.19▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▲0.03 | 30th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.13 | 29th |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.12 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CaliforniaCAL | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3057th | Own 2844th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.620th | +10.680th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts12th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NCSU +0.3: field position −0.7, 4th downs +1.0. | −0.349th | +0.351st |
Season so far
California3–6 · 34th-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19Lat NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5NC State4–4 · 69th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13W
vs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5Lvs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5L
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5Wvs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is