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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs DUKE · Sat, Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

NC State

4–4 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−1.9
Rank
80
Résumé
99
Projected wins
5.4▼ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at VirginiaUVANCSU PKNCSU +5.5L 8–3429NCSU · L
Fri, Sep 119/11RichmondRichmondNCSU −37.8NCSU −33.5W 73–099
Sat, Sep 199/19at VanderbiltVANNCSU +6.0NCSU +4.5L 31–3535VAN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26App StateAPPNCSU −20.1NCSU −13.0W 41–3150NCSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3LouisvilleLOUNCSU +3.0NCSU +3.5W 31–2837NCSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Wake ForestWAKENCSU +4.3NCSU +3.5L 14–3826WAKE · W
Fri, Oct 2310/23at StanfordSTANNCSU −9.8NCSU −7.0L 28–3153NCSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31CaliforniaCALNCSU −11.5NCSU −8.5W 31–10—NCSU · W
Sat, Nov 711/7DukeDUKENCSU +3.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14SyracuseSYRNCSU −2.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Florida StateFSUNCSU +10.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at North CarolinaUNCNCSU +7.4—wk 13

Model on NCSU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.44–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)15%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1734th
Success rate44.8%49th
Pass EPA+0.2819th
Rush EPA+0.0682nd
Explosive rate12.6%71st
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive5.09th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.23133rd
Success allowed45.3%117th
Pass EPA allowed+0.29129th
Rush EPA allowed+0.16119th
Explosive allowed15.9%134th
Havoc rate10.2%133rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.187th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−0.1 yd78th
Hidden points / game−1.8gave up
Luck, wins+0.63.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−3.3%91st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.980th
Schedule played+0.169th
Schedule remaining+5.447th
Full schedule+2.062nd
Pregame expected wins3.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 80th · −1.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNCSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
NC Stateoff +0.17 34thdef +0.23 allowed · 133rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.