Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
California
3–6 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–18FinalWe had CAL 23 – SYR 30
Syracuse
4–4 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SYR 65%CAL won
SYR 65%CAL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SYR −1.5.SYR −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.3 · CAL covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.2.57final 39 · under by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CAL +3Wlost 0.5 to the close
CAL +3Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele21/34 · 182 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0535th pct
- Comp %
- 61.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Steve Angeli25/49 · 306 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0747th pct
- Comp %
- 51.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Californiaoffense | Played like SYR +5.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSyracuse | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.0%▼0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.0%▲10.5 | 74th |
| 27th | −0.10▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.19 | 73rd |
| 39th | −0.05▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.01 | 61st |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.41 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Syracuseoffense | defenseCalifornia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.7%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.7%▲12.7 | 78th |
| 43rd | +0.01▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.26 | 57th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.14 | 53rd |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.34 | 60th |
| 4th | 3▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CaliforniaCAL | SyracuseSYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3269th | Own 3271st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts11th | −3.8 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 8699th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.927th | +7.973rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +0.5 pts78th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CAL +10.3: turnovers +7.8, field position −0.1, kicking +1.3, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +10.390th | −10.310th |
Season so far
California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5Wat Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5L
at SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5Syracuse4–4 · 47th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
Lvs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5L
at Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14L
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5W
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5Wvs SMU30–27covered +9.5
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is