Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
California
3–6 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–59FinalWe had CAL 18 – SMU 36
AP #23SMU
6–2 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 86%SMU won
SMU 86%SMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −17.5.SMU −19oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.9 · SMU covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.55.5final 79 · over by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SMU −18.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
SMU −18.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele27/37 · 265 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0747th pct
- Comp %
- 73.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Kevin Jennings16/23 · 223 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7093rd pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Californiaoffense | Played like SMU +27.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 38.2%▲3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.2%▲1.3 | 64th |
| 30th | −0.08▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.13 | 71st |
| 51st | +0.07▲0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.04 | 49th |
| 9th | −0.32▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.39 | 91st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| SMUoffense | defenseCalifornia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 52.7%▲6.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.7%▼9.5 | 15th |
| 94th | +0.45▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.26 | 6th |
| 94th | +0.67▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.61 | 6th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.05 | 15th |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CaliforniaCAL | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2528th | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts87th | +0.4 pts58th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 5540th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −23.66th | +23.694th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +1.6 pts99th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SMU +9.2: field position +4.1, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +2.8, penalty first downs +3.1. | −9.214th | +9.286th |
Season so far
California3–6 · 31st-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10L
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5
vs Wake Forest7–41missed +10.5Lat SMU20–59missed +19
at SMU20–59missed +19L
at NC State10–31missed +9.5
at NC State10–31missed +9.5SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
W
at Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5W
vs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10Wvs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19Lat Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is