Week 3 report · Fri, Sep 18 · 2026 Week 3
AP #5Miami
7–0 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
33–20FinalWe had MIA 39 – WAKE 15
Wake Forest
7–1 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIA 93%MIA won
MIA 93%MIA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIA −23.5.MIA −20oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −24.8 · WAKE covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.56final 53 · under by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WAKE +23.5Wbeat the close by 3.5
WAKE +23.5Wbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Darian Mensah29/33 · 216 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1253rd pct
- Comp %
- 87.9
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Gio Lopez29/46 · 312 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miamioffense | Played like WAKE +1.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWake Forest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▼10.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▼2.6 | 44th |
| 51st | +0.06▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.10 | 49th |
| 56th | +0.12▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.10 | 44th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.16 | 57th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Wake Forestoffense | defenseMiami | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▼10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▼6.0 | 49th |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.11 | 47th |
| 56th | +0.12▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.10 | 45th |
| 24th | −0.14▼0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▼0.18 | 76th |
| 41st | 1▼0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MiamiMIA | Wake ForestWAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2416th | Own 2739th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts20th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.635th | +4.665th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.5 pts21st |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIA +5.1: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.1, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties +2.9. | +5.173rd | −5.127th |
Season so far
Miami7–0 · 62nd-hardest schedule
W
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5Wvs Florida A&M77–7covered −59.5
Wat Wake Forest33–20missed −20
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20W
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41W
at Clemson41–13covered −14
at Clemson41–13covered −14W
vs Florida State43–35missed −19.5
vs Florida State43–35missed −19.5W
vs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5
vs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5Wake Forest7–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3Lvs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5Wvs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5W
at California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5W
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 18, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is