Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Stanford
4–5 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–57FinalWe had STAN 20 – WAKE 34
Wake Forest
7–1 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 80%WAKE won
WAKE 80%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WAKE −12.5.WAKE −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.1 · WAKE covered by 39.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.9.54final 60 · over by 6
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WAKE −12.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
WAKE −12.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Davis Warren19/30 · 136 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Gio Lopez20/27 · 265 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Stanfordoffense | Played like WAKE +36.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWake Forest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.8%▼8.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.8%▲15.1 | 91st |
| 10th | −0.27▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.27 | 90th |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.37 | 82nd |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.11 | 86th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.9 | 59th |
| Wake Forestoffense | defenseStanford | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | 63.8%▲14.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 63.8%▼14.2 | 4th |
| 85th | +0.34▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.06 | 15th |
| 61st | +0.18▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.14 | 39th |
| 96th | +0.53▲0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.29 | 4th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| StanfordSTAN | Wake ForestWAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 227th | Own 4197th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.0 pts22nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3613th | 4727th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −38.51st | +38.5100th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.5 pts2nd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WAKE +13.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +6.7, kicking +0.7, 4th downs +2.0, penalty first downs +1.5. | −13.54th | +13.596th |
Season so far
Stanford4–5 · 10th-hardest schedule
W
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5L
at Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3Lat Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5L
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
W
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5L
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5Wake Forest7–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3Lvs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20Wat Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5Wvs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5Wat NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5W
at California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5W
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is